Are you building or just visiting?
The US hiring market is frozen, not broken. What's behind Big Tech's AI layoff story, plus why Argentina just became a more interesting place to build.
Hey there,
Lately, I’ve been thinking a lot about my time in Latin America and the impact, positive or negative, that we gringos have here. Many foreigners move to cities and skip Spanish lessons. They pay rent in dollars and push up prices for locals. They expect the city to adjust to them. That works for a while, but then it stops. Locals notice when people take from a place without giving back. Sooner or later, there’s a price to pay.
I’ve been here long enough to see both sides. Early on, I had to ask myself: am I just taking advantage of a good market, or am I building something that gives back?
That question is a big part of why I started Lupa. I wanted to connect US companies with Latin American talent in a way that really works. When companies treat hiring here as just a way to save money rather than a real commitment, they usually fail within a year. They blame the region, leave, and leave the people they hired in a tough spot. That hurts everyone: the company, the hires, and the market.
The goal was always simple: help companies succeed in Latin America so they want to return, and place candidates in jobs where they can really grow. When both sides win, everything works.
Let’s get into it.
🌐 News Shortlist
1. The Hiring Market Looks Active. It Isn’t.
Recap: New analysis from Indeed Hiring Lab, published April 13, shows a widening gap between job postings and completed hires in the US. Job postings have climbed steadily, but the actual hiring rate has fallen from 4.5% in 2021 to 2.8% today. Supporting data from BambooHR’s 2026 State of Hiring report shows applicants per posting have nearly doubled, from roughly 46 to 95 over the same period. Worker productivity rose 4.9% last year, one of the sharpest increases on record. At a late-2025 CEO summit, two-thirds of top executives said they plan to keep headcount flat or reduce it, citing trade policy uncertainty, elevated interest rates, and AI.
The US labor market isn’t falling apart. It’s just stuck, and that difference matters to founders trying to hire right now.
Here’s what’s really happening: companies post jobs to keep their pipelines full and look stable, but they aren’t making offers like they used to. Productivity gains that should mean more hiring are instead used as reasons to keep team sizes the same. Teams that once needed eight people now do the same work with six, and leaders are fine with that. So jobs stay open, applications pile up, and nothing gets filled.
This sets a trap for founders. The market looks competitive because there are so many applicants, but the people you really want are mostly still employed and not moving. Quit rates are near record lows. The best candidates aren’t actively looking. They feel secure enough to wait, especially since tariffs and AI make changing jobs riskier than it was two years ago.
This caution makes the freeze worse. Employers aren’t investing in their teams as much as the headlines suggest, and top candidates aren’t taking big risks. The whole market is waiting for things to settle.
Advice:
If you have an important opening, treat it like a real competition, even if you get lots of applicants. High volume doesn’t mean high quality. The people you want need a strong reason to move, and right now, that bar is higher than it’s been in years.
2. Meta and Microsoft Cut 23,000 Jobs and Blamed AI. That Is Not the Whole Story.
Recap: On April 23 and 24, Meta and Microsoft announced cuts affecting a combined 23,000 employees within a 24-hour window. Meta plans to eliminate 8,000 roles starting May 20, concentrated in its Trust and Safety division, where AI moderation tools have reportedly surpassed human reviewer accuracy across most content categories. Microsoft announced buyouts to approximately 8,750 US employees. Both companies explicitly cited AI-driven efficiency gains as the primary driver. The announcements came the same week that Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft confirmed plans to spend nearly $700 billion combined on AI infrastructure in 2026.
Both companies do have real business reasons for these cuts. AI moderation tools really are replacing some content review jobs. That part is true.
What deserves more scrutiny is the framing. A December 2025 survey found that 59% of hiring managers admitted they emphasize AI when announcing layoffs because it plays better with stakeholders than acknowledging overhiring or margin pressure. “AI did it” quickly closes the conversation. It sounds like an inevitable force of nature rather than a deliberate set of choices made over several years. It shifts accountability away from the decisions that led to the overcorrection in the first place.
This matters for founders paying attention to these headlines and trying to decide what to do next. The idea that AI is wiping out whole business functions is only partly true—and it’s also helpful for those who want that story to be believed. The same companies cutting jobs are spending more than ever on AI infrastructure. That’s a choice about where to put their money, not proof that the labor market is falling apart.
A better signal is what these companies are hiring for now: AI integration roles, technical customer success, forward-deployed engineers, and enterprise AI support teams. For every job lost to automation, another is growing to manage, deploy, or sell it. The shift is real and uneven, but it’s not a total elimination.
Advice:
Don’t let Big Tech’s reasons for restructuring shape your hiring plans. Most of what they’re doing is correcting for too much hiring between 2020 and 2022. Founders who build teams that fit their real needs and train people on AI tools now will be in a much better spot than those who use AI uncertainty as an excuse to stop hiring.
3. Argentina Got a $1 Billion Vote of Confidence from the IMF.
Recap: On April 15, the IMF cleared Argentina’s second program review, unlocking a $1 billion disbursement and endorsing a package of structural reforms. The package includes labor market flexibility legislation, the restoration of companies’ ability to repatriate profits, and the formal dismantling of capital controls that had been in place since 2019. The IMF projects Argentina will grow 3.5% in 2026, the strongest growth forecast among the region’s major economies. However, March 2026 came in at 3.4% monthly inflation, bringing Q1 cumulative inflation to 9.4%. The government had budgeted 10.1% for the entire calendar year.
Argentina is really recovering. The big picture—FDI coming back, capital controls gone, and the IMF program on track—shows real structural change. For companies that had given up on the country, there’s now a strong case to take another look, backed by real institutional support.
The inflation numbers add important context. The government planned for 10.1% inflation for all of 2026, but they’ve already hit 9.4% in just three months. This doesn’t mean stabilization is failing; it just means costs are rising faster than expected. Companies hiring in Argentina now need to update their view that it’s a very low-cost market. Senior professionals know their buying power is shrinking and are pricing their work to match. The best candidates have been quoted in USD for a while, and that’s not changing.
This creates a more complex opportunity, not a simple one. Argentina’s talent—across engineering, product, finance, and legal—is still very strong, thanks to top universities and a long history of technical skill. That hasn’t changed. What has changed is pay and how candidates think. The best people aren’t hugely undervalued anymore, and many now look for jobs paid in dollars because they know how inflation affects peso salaries. That’s still a real advantage for US companies hiring there, but it takes better preparation and stronger offers than before.
Advice:
If you plan to hire in Argentina in 2026, use up-to-date numbers. The big picture is getting better, but costs are rising, and top candidates expect more. Companies that come in with real pay benchmarks and a clear commitment to the market will build much better teams than those still using 2023 assumptions.
That’s it for this week.
All three stories come back to the same question: are you really building something, or just looking for an easy advantage?
A frozen labor market rewards companies that put in the effort to find and win over the right candidate, rather than just waiting for many applicants. AI layoff stories deserve a closer look—founders who ask, “Who benefits from this story?” will make better choices than those who just accept it. In Argentina, companies that come prepared and make real offers do better than those who expect the market to adjust to them.
One way to hire in Latin America is to take value and leave. Another way is to build something lasting and return. The second way is harder, but it’s the only one that matters. If you want to talk about what that could look like for your team, reach out to us at lupahire.com.
Until next time,
Joseph Burns
CEO & Founder, Lupa