Colombia picked a side
Colombia’s election was decided by less than one percent, and new business opportunities are opening up fast.
Hey there,
Three weeks ago, I told you this week would be the last clear sign before Colombia’s new era, whichever it may be. Far right-wing, pro-Trump Abelardo de la Espriella won the runoff by less than a point, the closest presidential margin in Colombia’s modern history.
I’m not Colombian, and I don’t vote there, so this isn’t about my personal preference. What matters now is how things will change for anyone doing business in Colombia, and those changes begin immediately.
Other news this week: The US central bank (the Fed) decided not to cut interest rates, citing a still-strong job market. In tech, more than 185k people have lost their jobs this year, mostly because companies are using AI to automate work. But even with all these layoffs, there are still 275k open jobs that require AI skills, jobs that most of the laid-off workers don’t have the training to fill. I’ll tell you more below.
Let’s get into it.
🌐 News Shortlist
1. Colombia Swung Right by Less Than a Point.
Recap: Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia’s June 21 runoff with 49.6 percent, just ahead of Iván Cepeda’s 48.7 percent, a difference of fewer than 250k votes, making it the closest result in modern history. De la Espriella, a right-wing outsider often compared to Argentina’s Javier Milei, promised to shrink the state by about 40 percent, cut corporate taxes, broaden the tax base, and reopen Colombia to foreign investment and hydrocarbon production. He takes office on August 7. Markets rallied, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called de la Espriella to signal closer economic and security ties.
For three years, Colombia’s story was one of caution. Investors held back, foreign direct investment stayed below 2022 levels, and competition for senior talent in Bogotá and Medellín lagged behind the talent available. That was the window we kept talking about.
Sunday’s result is starting to close that window. De la Espriella ran on a platform that markets like, and they responded as expected: stocks rose and the peso strengthened. When a country signals it’s open for investment, multinational employers act before the new government takes office. They hire based on the rules they expect, not just the ones in place now.
The new president, however, faces a big challenge on a narrow margin. Winning by less than a point is not a strong mandate, and de la Espriella’s proposals are bold but lack detail. His confrontational style adds uncertainty, and Colombia’s fiscal deficit is expected to grow regardless of who is in charge. So, while this is a real change in direction, it’s also a contested one.
For hiring, this is what you need to know: the quiet market is about to get busier. The engineers, product leaders, and operators you can reach at current rates, with little competition, won’t stay available once investment increases. You’ll see this shift in salary expectations before it appears in any report, so act before the market tightens.
Advice:
If you’ve been waiting to build in Colombia, waiting now comes at a cost. Start reaching out while there are still few competing offers, and compare salaries to where they’re headed, not where they were last year. Move now so hiring stays ahead of the shift.
2. 275k AI Available Jobs. The People Being Laid Off Can’t Fill Them.
Recap: By late June 2026, tech layoffs had passed 185k, with 56 percent mentioning AI or automation. Meanwhile, about 275k AI-specific jobs remain open. ManpowerGroup’s 2026 survey of over 39k employers found that AI skills are now the hardest to hire for, with demand outpacing supply by about 3.2-to-1. Openings for machine learning engineers are 59 percent higher than before the pandemic, while general software engineering roles are down 49 percent. The jobs being cut (like customer support and QA) aren’t the ones being created. A 2025 MIT study found that 95 percent of enterprise AI pilots showed no measurable financial return, and Forrester found only 16 percent of workers had high AI readiness in 2025, a number expected to reach just 25 percent by the end of 2026.
Layoffs and hiring are happening at the same time, but most coverage treats them as the same story. They’re not. One is about jobs disappearing, and the other is about jobs that no one is prepared to fill.
If you look at job postings, demand for machine learning engineers is much higher than before the pandemic, while demand for regular software engineers is much lower. A laid-off support rep or QA analyst can’t make that jump in just a few months. These skills take time to develop, and most employers aren’t investing in them. Forrester found that only 16 percent of workers were ready to work with AI last year, and that number will only reach about a quarter by the end of this year. Companies are letting go of people with valuable knowledge, but don’t have enough trained staff to manage the new tools.
For example, a company might replace its content team with an AI workflow, only to find that no one can prompt, check, or fix what the tool creates. The MIT study highlights this problem: 95 percent of enterprise AI pilots showed no measurable return. Efficiency was assumed, not proven.
This situation creates two groups: a large pool of skilled mid-career professionals who lost their jobs because of AI that hasn’t delivered, and a small, highly competitive group of people who can actually do AI-focused work. Both groups reward the same approach: reaching out directly and assessing real skills instead of waiting for the perfect résumé.
Advice:
Before posting another senior AI job into a market with a 3-to-1 shortage, consider the talent you already have and the experienced people who were just let go. Training a strong operator to work with these tools is often faster and less expensive than competing for a title everyone wants, so prioritize internal and recently displaced talent first.
3. The World Cup Knockouts Start, and the USA Won Its Group.
Recap: The United States beat Australia 2-0 in Seattle on June 19 and won Group D. This is the first time the USA has topped its World Cup group since 2010. The 2026 tournament features 48 teams, with the top two from each group and the eight best third-place teams moving to the Round of 32. The USA’s knockout match is set for around July 1. On June 10, we mentioned research estimating up to $30 billion in lost US productivity during the tournament’s 39 days.
I predicted the USA’s success early and got some pushback for it. Now, after two straight wins and a group title, the knockout rounds are here. This is also when the schedule starts to affect teams across the Americas.
The productivity estimate we discussed on June 10 was always just an approximation. We see now how the schedule lines up. Knockout matches for Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and now Colombia happen during working hours in the Eastern and Central time zones. Even your most responsible employees from those teams will be harder to reach on match days. Decisions will take longer, and interviews planned around elimination games may be delayed.
Timing is still the main issue. Hiring cycles in Colombia usually take six to eight weeks. Since the tournament runs until July 19, any search that hasn’t started yet probably won’t finish until August, which will push onboarding into the fourth quarter. I made this point before the group stage, but now there’s even less time.
Advice:
Work with the knockout schedule instead of against it. Schedule interviews outside of match times that matter to your candidates. If you want to hire in Latin America this quarter, start your search this week, the July 19 final is closer than you think, and delays will only compress your hiring window.
That is it for this week.
The labor market remains strong, which is why the Fed stopped promising rate cuts, and why those 275k jobs matter more than the layoff numbers. Plus, the World Cup knockouts are about to make your Latin America schedule more complicated than you might expect, so hiring now requires faster action.
The trends that shift first are the ones to watch right now. That’s the purpose of this newsletter, and it’s also what we help clients with every week at lupahire.com.
Until next time,
Joseph Burns
CEO & Founder, Lupa