Everyone will be watching
The World Cup starts tomorrow and could cost US employers up to $30 billion.
Hey there,
The World Cup kicks off tomorrow in Mexico City. There will be 104 matches, 48 teams, and 39 days of games. New research this week says US employers could lose between $17 billion and $30 billion in productivity by the time the final match ends at MetLife Stadium on July 19.
That number is eye-catching, but what matters more is what's driving it, especially for anyone building a team right now.
During the same week as the tournament kickoff, the April JOLTS report showed job openings rising to 7.62 million, the highest in two years. Professional and business services made up 90 percent of that increase. Meanwhile, tech layoffs in 2026 surpassed 142,000, with most companies citing AI as the main reason.
Three data points. Most companies are paying attention to the wrong one.
Let's get into it.
1. The World Cup Opens Tomorrow. For Companies Hiring in Latin America, the Next 39 Days Have a Specific Logic.
Recap: The 2026 FIFA World Cup begins June 11 with Mexico vs. South Africa in Mexico City and runs through July 19, with 104 matches across 16 cities in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. A UKG survey of 8,000 employees across eight countries found that 37 percent of workers plan to adjust their schedules during the 39-day tournament, with 27 percent planning to arrive late, leave early, or take full days off. Separate analysis puts the productivity cost to US employers at up to $30 billion. 19% of employees said they would consider looking for a new job if their employer's scheduling policies interfered with their ability to watch matches.
The productivity number is real, but it's a rough estimate. It just adds up the hours lost from the 37 percent of workers who plan to change their schedules and turns that into dollars. What it misses is where those changes actually happen, which is the more useful question for anyone managing teams in Colombia, Brazil, or Argentina.
Colombia opens on June 17 against Uzbekistan. Argentina starts on June 16, and Brazil on June 13. All these matches take place during the workday in the Eastern and Central time zones. Senior engineers and operations leaders on those teams will be less available on those days. Decisions will take longer, and scheduling interviews around elimination rounds will be tougher. This isn't a criticism of the people, it's just a scheduling reality that most US hiring managers haven't planned for in Q3.
The bigger issue is timing. In Colombia, hiring cycles in professional services already take six to eight weeks. With a major tournament running through July 19, any role that hasn't started its search this week probably won't close until August at the earliest. That means onboarding and ramp-up will likely fall into Q4.
Advice:
If you plan to hire in Latin America this quarter and haven't started yet, you're already behind the tournament schedule. Companies that start now will finish before the final. Those that wait will feel it in their Q3 timelines.
2. Job Openings Hit a 2-Year High. Nobody Is Moving.
Recap: The Bureau of Labor Statistics April 2026 JOLTS report, released June 2, showed job openings rising to 7.62 million, up 731,000 from March and the highest level since May 2024. Professional and business services accounted for more than 90 percent of the increase, adding 668,000 openings. At the same time, the number of new hires fell sharply, layoffs fell, and voluntary quits dropped to their lowest point in almost six years.
7.62 million openings might look like a hot market, but the rest of the report tells a different story.
Job openings show what employers want, not what's actually happening. The April data shows companies posting more jobs, but not hiring more people. Quits are at a six-year low, so workers are staying put even when they have options. Hires and layoffs both dropped. The market is stuck: employers want to hire, employees aren't moving, and actual placements are going down.
This is the same pattern that has made professional hiring tough for the past year and a half. Last week's issue talked about the 31-month white-collar slowdown. This week's data shows the other side. There are plenty of openings, but the best candidates have stayed put through 31 months of cuts because they're good enough to keep their jobs. They won't move just because a new job is posted. Companies waiting for applications are only reaching the small group of people actively looking, not the ones with the skills you really need.
Advice:
7.62 million openings doesn't mean there's a big talent pool. It just shows what employers want. The candidates you really want aren't looking at those postings. They kept their jobs during the downturn and need a clear, direct reason to leave. You have to find them and make your case directly.
3. Tech Layoffs Hit 142,000 in 2026. The Companies Doing the Cutting Are Spending $700 Billion on Infrastructure Instead.
Recap: Tech layoffs surpassed 142,000 in 2026 as of late May and are on pace to exceed 370,000 by year-end, according to industry trackers, making 2026 the largest layoff year in the sector's recorded history. Fifty-five percent of layoff announcements explicitly cited AI or automation as a primary driver. Four hyperscalers, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, committed a combined $700 billion in capital expenditure for 2026, nearly double their 2025 spending. GitLab confirmed in June that it cut 14 percent of its workforce, roughly 350 employees, while exiting 22 countries and flattening management by up to three layers as part of what it called a restructuring for the agentic era.
The headline is 142,000 layoffs, but the more important number is $700 billion.
That $700 billion is what four companies are investing in AI infrastructure while running their largest layoff cycles ever. The money isn't going to headcount. It is going to compute. Each company is shifting what it was paying in salaries to what it now pays for servers, chips, and energy contracts.
The people being let go aren't low performers. Companies restructuring for AI have already cut the easier roles. Now, experienced product, engineering, and operations talent who held on through earlier rounds are caught in a restructuring unrelated to individual performance. GitLab's decision to leave 22 countries wasn't about poor performance; it was because centralized AI infrastructure made having teams everywhere less necessary.
That talent is available right now. Most aren't flooding job boards, because those who survived earlier cuts still believe they can find something without making it public. They're right, but only if someone reaches out to them first. The window is short. Six to twelve weeks after a layoff, the best candidates have already accepted new roles.
Advice:
The best candidates from this round of tech layoffs aren't on job boards. They're in the networks of people you already trust. Now is the time to ask your contacts who they know and reach out directly before those candidates take new roles just because they're available.
That is it for this week.
The World Cup starts tomorrow, and the next 39 days have a unique schedule for anyone building teams in Latin America. Most companies haven't planned for it. The April JOLTS data shows 7.62 million openings, but the quit rate is at a six-year low: employers want to hire, people aren't moving, and the best candidates aren't applying. Meanwhile, 142,000 tech workers have been cut in 2026, and the most experienced are available for only a short time before they quietly take new jobs.
These patterns do not wait for companies to notice them.
That's what this newsletter is for. It's also what we help clients with every week at Lupa.
Until next time,
Joseph Burns
CEO & Founder, Lupa