Latin America keeps turning the page
Peru swore in a new president this week, Colombia gets one next week, and both are moving the same way.
Hey there,
Two countries I follow closely just changed governments within ten days. Peru welcomed Keiko Fujimori as president on Tuesday, and Colombia will see Abelardo de la Espriella take office on August 7. Both support pro-market policies, plan to cut taxes and relax labor rules, and are working to reassure investors that it’s safe to return.
If you’re building teams in the region, this shift matters more than the headlines suggest. When a government shows it wants investment, hiring conditions often start to change before new policies are in place.
There are two other things to watch this week. Big Tech companies reported earnings, and Wall Street pushed back on how much they’re spending on AI. The Fed kept interest rates steady, but three officials argued they should have raised them instead.
Let's get into it.
🌐 News Shortlist
1. Peru Swears In a Pro-Market President.
Recap: Keiko Fujimori was inaugurated as Peru’s president on July 28, after winning June’s runoff by fewer than 50,000 votes. She is the country’s ninth president in a decade. Fujimori, 51, leads Peru’s largest political party and was running for the fourth time. Her agenda centers on political stability, reducing crime, and pro-market economic growth. Her win, alongside Abelardo de la Espriella’s in Colombia, extends a run of market-friendly governments across the region.
Put the vote margin aside for a moment. The real story is bigger: Peru has had nine presidents in ten years.
This instability sets the stage for the election. Peru has changed presidents so often that businesses can’t plan around it, with impeachments, resignations, and even an arrest. Fujimori won by promising to end this cycle, but it’s still uncertain whether she can deliver. Winning by less than 50,000 votes and facing a divided congress is a tough position. Peru voted for stability, and now it needs to make that real.
When it comes to hiring, Peru is in a unique position. Its talent market is smaller than Colombia, Argentina, or Brazil, and US companies don’t pay much attention to it. That’s what makes it interesting. Lima has skilled engineers, finance experts, and operators. The time zone matches the US, and salaries are lower than in more popular markets. Its lower profile is the real opportunity for hiring.
I always tell clients that the real value in a market like this is finding senior talent. US companies would pay two or three times more for the same person at home, and that difference is the main opportunity. If you come to Peru to build something meaningful, the numbers add up. But if you’re only looking to save a little on junior salaries, it won’t work out.
The reality is that political risk in Peru is still there, and one election doesn’t erase ten years of it. A pro-market government can help by making things a bit more stable: attracting more foreign investment, bringing in more multinational employers, and increasing competition for talent over time. If Fujimori brings even some stability, today’s quiet hiring market will get busier.
The bigger trend is what matters: Argentina under Milei, Colombia under de la Espriella, and now Peru under Fujimori are all moving in the same direction. For US companies, a region that’s opening up to investment and easing labor rules is easier to build in and hire from. Early movers can set their standards before the competition arrives.
Advice: Add Peru to your list before everyone else does. The top talent in Lima isn’t applying for jobs, so you need to find and contact them directly. Start now, while most US companies aren’t looking there, and set your standards based on today’s market, not where it might go if stability takes hold.
2. Big Tech’s AI Spending Spooked Wall Street.
Recap: In second-quarter earnings reported over the past two weeks, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft confirmed they are on track to spend roughly $725 billion combined on AI infrastructure in 2026, up about 77 percent from last year, with projections near $950 billion for 2027. Alphabet raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to as much as $205 billion and reported that its free cash flow turned negative in the second quarter for the first time since its 2004 initial public offering. Its shares fell more than 7 percent. Across the sector, investors sold off on concern that AI revenue is not yet growing fast enough to justify the spending.
For most of this year, the market rewarded any company that spent big on AI. That just changed, and Alphabet shows why.
Alphabet is the figure to focus on. After two decades of steady profits, the company went cash-flow negative for a quarter because of heavy spending on data centers. Investors used to see this as ambition, but now they see it as a risk, and the stock fell. The main question is simple: the money is being spent now, but the revenue to justify it is still mostly a promise. This ties back to a theme we’ve tracked all year. Much of the money for AI investments came from cutting jobs. Companies called it efficiency and used the savings for computing power, hoping it would pay off. Now, Wall Street is no longer taking that on faith and is asking the same question we’ve been asking about layoffs: where’s the return?
For founders, the key takeaway is not to mistake the AI spending race for your own strategy. Alphabet can spend $205 billion and absorb the loss. You can’t, and you don’t have to. Think about the scale difference: big companies can put 400 engineers on a problem, while you might have one. You won’t win by outspending them, but you can win with good judgment. With today’s tools, a strong senior engineer can be as productive as a whole team. You can hire that kind of talent in Latin America for much less than in the US. That’s a very different approach from what you hear on earnings calls.
Advice: Don’t compare your AI strategy to Big Tech’s spending. Instead, focus on whether your team can use the tools you already have. The real advantage comes from skilled people. Spending money you can’t afford won’t get you there.
3. The Fed Held, and Three Governors Wanted a Hike.
Recap: On July 29, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent in a 9-3 vote. Three regional Fed presidents, Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas, dissented in favor of a rate increase, citing inflation that has stayed above the Fed’s 2 percent target for more than five years. The Fed described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace, with continued uncertainty tied in part to conflict in the Middle East.
Rates stayed the same. What’s more interesting is the direction of the dissenting votes.
For most of the past year, the Fed has debated when to cut rates. This time, three officials wanted to raise them. That’s a big change and shows that those setting rates are more concerned about high inflation than a slowing economy. If you’re waiting for cheaper borrowing before expanding, it’s time to stop waiting. Lower rates aren’t coming soon, and they could even go up.
Higher rates for longer mean US labor budgets stay tight. Companies don’t add staff when borrowing is expensive, which is why hiring has been cautious even with a strong economy. This same pressure has made building teams in Latin America more appealing all year, and this Fed decision doesn’t change that.
Advice: Plan your hiring for the next year assuming rates won’t change. You can’t control the Fed, but you can control your costs. A senior hire who costs $300,000 or more in the US can be much more affordable in Latin America, and that difference is a reliable hiring advantage no matter what the Fed does.
That is it for this week.
Peru and Colombia are both moving toward more investment, creating opportunities for companies willing to enter these markets before they become crowded. Big Tech’s earnings showed that Wall Street is finally questioning the rush to spend on AI, echoing concerns about the layoffs that funded it. The Fed also made it clear that cheaper money isn’t coming, so US hiring budgets will stay tight and the case for hiring in Latin America remains strong. The main takeaway is the same: the shifts all point in one direction.
The trends that change first are the ones to watch right now. That’s the focus of this newsletter, and it’s also what we help clients with every week at lupahire.com.
Until next time,
Joseph Burns
CEO & Founder, Lupa