On which side are you?
PwC analyzed one billion job postings and found the labor market splitting in two.
Hey there,
I kept telling people to watch out for the USA team, but no one believed me. Well, here it is: the US beat Paraguay 4-1 on June 12 at SoFi Stadium. That's the biggest World Cup win for the US since 1930, impressive whether or not you're following the tournament.
PwC also released a labor market study this week, analyzing over one billion job postings from 27 countries. The main takeaway: AI is dividing workers into two groups, with a 42 percent gap in salary growth between them. Learn more below.
Tech layoffs are averaging 1,115 people a day. A Gartner study of 350 companies found that those making the biggest cuts aren't performing any better than those making smaller cuts. Colombia's presidential runoff is this Sunday.
Let's get into it.
🌐 News Shortlist
1. The Labor Market Is Splitting in Two.
Recap: PwC's 2026 Global AI Jobs Barometer looked at over one billion job ads in 27 countries and found that AI is splitting the labor market into two tracks. "Professionalised" roles, where AI takes care of routine tasks and lets people focus on judgment, are growing twice as fast as "democratised" roles and have 42 percent faster salary growth. Jobs needing AI skills grew 69 percent year over year, compared to 9 percent for the overall market. The wage premium for AI skills is now 62 percent, up from 57 percent last year. Companies using AI the most have grown their workforces by 52 percent since 2018, while less AI-focused firms grew by 36 percent.
Most reports on AI and jobs say, "some jobs are created, some are lost." That's true, but it doesn't really tell you what it means for you.
PwC's breakdown is more specific. In "professionalised" jobs like radiologists or recruiters, AI takes over the routine work, so what's left needs more judgment than before. For example, if AI flags the easy scans, radiologists spend more time on complex cases that need real clinical interpretation. That makes their jobs harder to replace, not easier. The same goes for recruiters: if AI screens candidates, the tough decisions are now the main part of the job.
"Democratised" jobs are the opposite. AI makes it easier for more people to do these jobs well, so the extra pay for expertise goes down. If anyone with the right software can do a decent job in IT service management or medical transcription, salaries for those roles usually fall. That's what the data shows.
The 62 percent wage premium for AI skills is mostly found in professionalised jobs. People in democratised roles aren't seeing the same pay increases, and PwC's data doesn't show that changing soon. Salary growth between the two groups is already splitting by 42 percent.
When hiring, the key question before writing a job description is whether the role will become more or less valuable as AI improves. This question affects pay, career growth, and how hard it will be to keep people in the role.
Advice: Figure out which track the job is on before you write the description. Roles that are becoming more common need different pay and retention strategies than those that are becoming more specialized. Pay matters, but so do career paths and what you tell candidates about long-term growth.
2. Cutting Jobs Doesn't Guarantee Performing Better.
Recap: Tech layoffs in 2026 reached 183,966 workers as of June 16, averaging 1,115 per day, nearly double last year's pace. Fifty-five percent of announcements explicitly cite AI as a driver. The same AI-driven split shows up in how companies are cutting. A May 2026 Gartner study of 350 firms found that companies cutting the most aggressively showed no improvement in financial returns. Two additional independent research groups, MIT and METR, arrived at similar findings. Many companies are making permanent workforce decisions based on AI performance they have not yet measured or, in some cases, have not yet deployed.
The numbers are striking: 183,966 workers have been laid off this year as of June 16, averaging 1,115 per day. That's almost twice last year's rate. In 55 percent of cases, companies say AI is the reason.
But here's the catch: a Gartner study from May looked at 350 companies and found that those making the biggest cuts didn't see better financial results. MIT and METR found the same thing. The idea that cutting lots of jobs boosts productivity sounds good, but the evidence isn't there yet.
There's another problem. Some companies are making big, permanent changes based on AI tools they haven't even rolled out or measured yet. If the expected results don't show up, these companies will have less flexibility to adjust. Sam Altman called this "AI washing" earlier this year, meaning companies blame AI for cuts when the real reasons are things like overhiring or profit pressure. The Gartner data backs this up.
For founders hiring now: most people affected by these layoffs aren't low performers. Earlier layoffs already handled that. Now, experienced product and engineering talent is on the market because of restructuring driven as much by shareholder signals as by business needs. That is the candidate pool to keep in mind when you're reviewing candidates.
Advice: It's worth talking directly to people coming out of this round of tech layoffs. Gartner's research shows many weren't let go because they were replaceable, but because their companies gambled on AI results that haven't materialized. That's very different from someone who was let go for performance reasons.
3. Colombia Votes Sunday.
Recap: Colombia's presidential runoff takes place June 21 between far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, who led the first round with 43.7 percent, and leftist Iván Cepeda, aligned with outgoing President Gustavo Petro, who received 40.9 percent. De la Espriella has drawn comparisons to Argentina's Javier Milei and has campaigned to reverse Petro's economic policies, lower corporate taxes, and reopen Colombia to foreign direct investment. The three-point first-round lead is significant but not decisive in a two-candidate election. That is why it's worth looking back at what we wrote on May 27. For three years, investor caution under Petro kept foreign direct investment 9 percent below 2022 levels, which held down both salaries and competition for top Colombian talent. We said the election would either keep things the same or change them. Shift it.
The first-round results suggest change is coming. De la Espriella got 43.7 percent and Cepeda got 40.9 percent. That's a real gap, but 43.7 percent in a crowded first round doesn't guarantee a win in the runoff. Recent polls show the race is tightening, so Sunday's result is still up in the air.
If you're building teams in Bogotá or Medellín, timing matters. Multinational companies waiting for clear rules will start making moves before the new government takes office. Salary benchmarks and job offers change based on what people expect, not just what's happening now.
The window we talked about on May 27 is still open. But depending on Sunday's result, it could close sooner than the data will show.
Advice: If you've been waiting to start hiring in Colombia, Sunday is your last clear signal before things change. The job candidates you can hire at today's pay rates may not be available at those rates six months from now if the investment climate shifts.
That is it for this week.
The US won 4-1 and Colombia votes in four days. PwC's analysis of one billion job postings shows salary growth diverging at 42 percent between the two tracks AI is creating. The tech layoff data show that the efficiency case for mass cuts is not holding up under scrutiny. The Colombian hiring window we described on May 27 is about to get narrower.
That's what this newsletter is here for. It's also what we help clients with every week at lupahire.com.
Until next time,
Joseph Burns
CEO & Founder, Lupa